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Posts tagged with management

Why is it that the standard of proof in software development theory is “Some famous person said it’s cool and I can think of an analogy to a Malcolm Gladwell book so therefore i’m right”?

  • Standards of proof in medicine—scurvy, limeys
  • Control groups and test groups.
  • Yes, all studies are flawed.
  • My Comment: The difference between nitpicking and valid criticism of a study is this. Any study is going to miss some data points (patchy, piecemeal coverage of the space we’re interested in) and the measurements are going to be wrong ε. ε may even be piped through a function (automorphism) such that the whole study is ruined. (for example you measured the wrong people or you measured the wrong way or you introduced bias or you measured a special proper subset but wrongly generalised the special property to the general case)

    We know this going in. The challenge is to distinguish ε’s that are deadly to the conclusion from epsilon;’s that are inconvenient and imperfect but don’t phase-change the conclusion. (think bounded perturbation versus sign change)

    This is why it’s nice to be able to make arguments using order-of-magnitude or sign. If you observe multiple orders of magnitude difference in beta; between the control group and the test group, then as long as your sample wasn’t horrifically terrible, the conclusion that A>B is still going to hold up.
  • Rank speculation versus data.
  • http://cochrane.org. Look at the data yourself. Do you see a connexion between vaccination and autism?
  • “It’s almost impossible to get a paper published in a top journal without having actually tried it in the real world.”
  • “All the work that’s been done to date on [estimating software development time] is pretty much worthless. … The engineers are just going to tell us what they think we want to hear.” (or their answer will be driven by anchoring effects)
  • Garbage in, garbage out. (He gives an example where some garbage estimates of how long a software project would take are used as the base data, before being thrown through a gleaming shimmering algorithm that makes them look meaningful.)
  • “If [developers are more accurate estimating how long a project will take on an hours-scale than a months-scale,] then that’s a powerful argument for using agile methods. I’ve heard many people make that argument, but we don’t have any data to back it up.
  • You’ve all heard “Great programmers are 28 times more productive than OK programmers. Or 40, 50, 100. I just pick a number that’s big enough to be impressive but not so large that you’re going to doubt me.”
  • My question: I would love to see a #BigData person scrape the web for all such claims.
  • “All of the claims you’re reading about the relative productivity of programmers can be traced back to: 12 people in 1968 [batch programming] for an afternoon, or 54 people [in the 1980’s] for an hour. How confident are you in those claims now?
  • “The best programmer I ever met — his only higher education was two years at a rabbinical college.”
  • Claims he could take $150M in research money and make 5% of $1,000B. (A classic appeal to the “No number can be less than 1%” theorem. Textbook VC-pitch logic.)
  • Klaus _____; “Regardless of language” (scheme, assembly, java, python, …) “programmers produce the same number of lines-of-code per hour.”
  • Boehm 1975: “Most bugs are introduced in the design & analysis phase.”
  • “The sooner a bug is caught in the development process, the less it costs to fix” (he seems to indicate the cost growth is exponential with time)
  • “Adding a feature doubles production time. (Conversely, if the developers can say “no” to a few features, development time goes down convexly.)”
  • “If you have to rewrite more than 25% of the code, you’re better off starting from scratch.”
  • Minute 33: “Hour for hour, the fastest way to fix code is to read it. Not to run it. Not to write unit tests. Sitting down and having someone else go through your code. 60%-90% of bugs can be removed before the code is even run.”
  • “But it turns out that most of the value comes from the first reader in the first hour of looking at the code.” That’s a couple hundred lines.
  • Conway’s Law is true.
  • A big-data statistical analysis of how Windows Vista was built, trying to find regressors that predict the fault rate.
  1. Physical co-location of programmers did not matter.
  2. Distance in organisational chart does matter.
  • Stereotypical anti-religious view of scientific progress. (“The difference between science and religion is…”). Blah. Not very evidence-based in an evidence-based lecture.
  • “Ask a successful start-up what’s the reason for their success and they’re going to get it wrong.” Up to academics to figure out what makes for success across various cases. (I agree; this is the point of management science. And he mentions the Harvard Business Review as a touchstone.)
  • Rob Pike: “I don’t think I’ve ever seen beautiful code.”
  • Typical self-perception of a rich programmer / white collar / professor. Whatev.
  • Some words about becoming an adult. Someday there will be no higher authority you can appeal to other than the people who were 18 when you were.
  • Making decisions when nobody knows the necessary information. (Seems out of place in a talk where he acts like his views are all backed-up by data. Whatever, though. I think we can all agree that being right is better than being wrong and that one should change one’s opinion whenever “objective evidence says you’re wrong” (whatever that means). And, obviously, as a leader you usually don’t get as much information as you would like—but you have to decide something anyway.)
  • The difference between the Bolsheviks and the Trotskyists is that whilst Bolsheiks believe the masses have to take to the streets to effect change, Trotskyists believe a handful of focussed people who get on the right committees can change the world. Examples: the teaching of evolution; abortion. Don’t write a blog (oops) or start a Facebook group to effect political change, go to the pressure point. Put on a suit, try to sound like an adult, and make your case calmly and rationally to the people in charge.

Hat tip to @gnycl.




Have you ever noticed that, even if you delete text from a Microsoft Word document, the file size doesn’t decrease? If you are writing a book in MS Word, you’ll notice that the .doc file grows ever larger as you add & delete paragraphs, move snippets around; even if you delete a chapter, the file doesn’t necessarily shrink.

If you copy-pasted a document which you’d been working on for a while into a new, empty Word .doc (can I call that the null document?), maybe you noticed that the new file — even though it contained exactly the same text — was much smaller than the older file.

  • That’s because, mathematically, .doc files are semigroups

Typewritten letters are also semigroups — the thousands of possible binary operations would be “append from {letters, punctuation, whitespace}” — but with Word files, the operations include delete words, delete ¶ and replace ¶ with the word you just typed.

Whereas the state of a .txt file is the current body of text, the state of a Word .doc is the entire history of the document. (That’s why programmers use git|svn to remember the history of their directories: the IDE doesn’t do it for them.)

You can see this in the metadata. Open a .doc file in a plain-text editor (e.g., Notepad) and you’ll see snippets of things you thought you deleted. Hey, why are those still there?!

Microsoft keeps them there because you — and most Word users — want to be able to hit Ctrl+Z or Edit > Undo. If the pages of highlighted text you just replaced with an “a” were really gone, there could be no undo operation. And then you would screw yourself thousands of times with mistaken keystrokes and on sad days when you think most of your book is trash.

As a consequence of giving people what they want, Microsoft has also given some people what they don’t want. The US government has written instructions on how to really, truly delete classified information in .doc files. (One wonders what was accidentally disclosed before those instructions were written.) And Merck was blasted, after they submitted an article about Vioxx after Delete-ing a paragraph about the concomitant risk of heart attack. Apparently someone at the New England Journal of Medicine knows how to press Ctrl+Z.

Note to CMO’s: Never send an unethical MBA to do an unethical hacker’s job. \insert{LaTeX quip}.

Personally, I never send resumes or curriculum vitæ in Word, nor do I send reports to clients in Word. I always generate a PDF. When I’m writing something, I want it to be malleable. But when I give it to you, I want it to be locked down, uneditable, unable to be reverse-engineered. I make sure what you’re viewing is exactly how I want it to look, saying just and only what I want it to say.




Meaningless:

XXX is seeking a high-caliber, experienced YYY with proven research, development and application skills in the area of ZZZ. The selected candidate will have a track-record of creating innovative YYY solutions to industry business challenges. They will also enjoy working in a collaborative environment with multi-disciplinary research teams, service team, business unit and vendor partners, testing and applying new technologies for direct business impact.

So many job postings sound like this. Overly formal, clearly written by someone unfamiliar with the kind of work the sought-after employee would be doing, and filled with suggestive but vapid jargon.

Who does XXX think they will attract with this kind of language? I can think of two kinds of people who would sincerely respond, “Yes, that’s me!” to the above statements: unoriginal toadies and liars.

Plain English. Let’s use it.




Why do people publicly admit to reading Robert Greene’s books? That’s like saying “Hi, I’m manipulative and power-hungry. Want to work together?”

Several times I have googled people who publicly admit (e.g. on a blog) that they like one or more of Robert Greene’s books. So obviously my first thought is Don’t Trust This Person. Haven’t been wrong about that yet. And let me just add: all such people have been Republicans. I’m not going to say anything, but I’ll just leave this here…

I'm just saying ... the guy shot his friend in the face, campaigned against the marriage rights of his daughter, and sent cushy government contracts the way of his oil company.

It just seems obvious that the first rule of manipulating people has to be that they can’t know they’re being manipulated. Even if a tyrant wanted to rule with an iron fist (yang ), peasants will flee if they know in advance that someone’s going to subjugate them. And there is an obvious facsimile to business.

Machiavellian

Niccolò Machiavelli is (wrongly) pegged as the progenitor of the manipulative, skulky, suspicious, power-grabbing style of leadership … let’s call it the Skeletor School of Management. But no one trusts Skeletor. And no one would really follow Skeletor. A consummate Machiavellian would never be so dumb as to let on that he’s about to manipulate you. I don’t even think Skeletor was that dumb … and he’s regularly outwitted by a monosyllabic barbarian with a claymore.

Anyway … why do people admit to reading Robert Greene?




In Remembering the Kanji, James Heissig evokes a good point about power, force, manipulation, cause, and influence.

☯ 陰 Agere

“It is not sure whether the long slender object is seducing the small round one or vice versa.”

He’s making a point about pull versus push, yin 阴 vs yang 阳 as different ways of getting the same thing done. Who’s more powerful — Sampson or Delilah? Imagine a beautiful woman who asks a strong man to bend an iron bar. He can’t do it right away, so he trains for months under the pretense that bending the bar will curry favour with the beautiful woman. After 36 weeks of training, he’s finally strong enough to bend the bar and does so. Who “caused” the bar to be bent? Didn’t the woman get more done with less effort on her part?

But either way, push-ing, force-ing, cause-ing, make-ing, do-ing (yang 陽) isn’t going to result in consensual relations. Effective is to beckon, entice, engender, subduce, induce, or otherwise draw one’s desired partner into action (yin 陰).

(Why do you think it’s called “pulling” ?)

Coevolution

It’s like Michael Pollan’s book The Botany of Desire (vided). He observes that apples, tulips, marijuana, and potatoes have coevolved with humans so as to cause us to like them. Pairing with humans is an effective strategy for prosperity, since we weed out what we don’t like and plant megahectares of what we do like.

In a rough paraphrase of a lecture Pollan gave: “The United States has a second lawn: millions of acres of corn, which corn could not have conquered alone. By appealing to human tastes, corn has enslaved — or enticed  — us into replicating its genes. We are corn’s nuclear weapon.”

Who is really domesticating whom? Dogs, cats, bees, bunnies, cows, and pandas have also thrived by enticing us (yin 陰) — whereas cockroaches, mosquitoes, rats, vermin, pests, and weeds have chosen Earth’s most technological species as their enemy (yang 陽).

Rivers & Lakes, Potential Wells, T’ui Shou & Management

There are many more parallels to Heissig’s point about “feminine” 阴 power.

In T’ui Sh’ou (scholar boxing), Sansh’ou, Aikido, Judo, and other grappling arts, fighters are trained to make use of, or redirect 陰, the efforts of their opponent (as well as to 阳 strike).

Say water is flowing into a lake. Is gravity 阳-forcing the water downward into the lake? Or did the digging of a hole 阴-pull the water into the potential well? When you build a dam in the lake, do you 阳-fortify the structure or 阴-reshape the walls so less sturdy materials are needed? These are dual optimisation problems.

In particle accelerators we can 阳 turn up the energy to 阳-push the electrons into higher orbitals; in a solar panel we’re stuck with the sun’s energy 阳-beating down on the desert at a bounded hν. We have to 阴-reshape our devices to 阴-harvest more of what’s already there.

In classical statistics, hypothesis testing is a bit like the potential wells. You can add more observations 阳 to strengthen the p value, or you can 阴 change the null hypothesis. As Bill Becker pointed out as expert testimony during a trial about wage discrimination based on gender: there is equal support for null hypotheses either above or below the observed (sample) mean.

In finance, imagine you have a trading signal. You want to improve it. You can either aim to bet more 阳 when your signal is most likely to profit, or you can try to bet zero 阴 when your signal is least likely to profit. Either will increase the expected return of your strategy, but getting out of the way 阴 has the added benefit of reducing transactions costs.

In romantic relationships, of course, there is a 阳-push and 阴-pull as well. Yielding 阴 and standing up for 阳 what you want are both necessary.  ”There used to be a fighting style called the 棉 cotton school 阴, but its practitioners are all dead.” And everyone who always said, “Whatever you want” no longer has that marriage.

Yanking 阳 an object out of a hole with as much 阳-force as possible requires more energy, might not work, and might destroy the hole — or the object — in the process. You won’t get Chinese handcuffs off that way either. Wiggling 阳阴 the object out, alternately pulling 阴 and pushing 阳 to find the easiest path, is less stressful to the structure and to you.

In management, not every battle needs to be 阳-fought. If you 阴-bring the right people in line with the right tasks, then they will 阳-expend their energy in a more productive way. 阴-Aligning teams that complement each other 阴-harvests more work from the same 阳-force. But that’s not to say that 阳-pushing back or 阳阴-guiding is unnecessary. Bullies need to be 阳-ejected from the ring, and the 阳阴-boss is still the 阳-boss.




From all business, my favorite case on incentives is Federal Express. The heart and soul of their system – which creates the integrity of the product – is having all their airplanes come to one place in the middle of the night and shift all the packages from plane to plane. If there are delays, the whole operation can’t deliver a product full of integrity to Federal Express customers.

And it was always screwed up. They could never get it done on time. They tried everything – moral suasion, threats, you name it. And nothing worked.

Finally, somebody got the idea to pay all these people not so much an hour, but so much a shift – and when it’s all done, they can all go home. Well, their problems cleared up overnight.

Charlie Munger

(Source: fourhourbody.com)




There is a prejudice in society against people who wake up late.

Obviously, someone who wakes up at 3pm, eats and gets ready, then works from 5pm until 2am, can get as much done as someone who works from 8:30am until 5:30pm.

And there are even more nocturnal schedules for sure. I used to finish work at 4am or 5am. (EMT’s, I feel ya!)

You would think that a diverse economy like ours could support multiple time-lifestyles, without prejudice. And there are indeed 24-hour Krogers (thankfully) as well as convenience stores. But doctors’ offices, job interviews, government agencies, banks, and gyms are all difficult-ish to access when you get home from work at 5am.

What’s the deal?

Aren’t there profits to be made by keeping your store open later? Plus, drawing customers away from the busiest store hours would reduce stress, mistakes, and costs during peak operating hours. Not to mention, traffic congestion would be reduced if more people commuted at 11am, 2pm, 5pm, 5am, or other times.

Maybe it is the priorities of people with kids forcing the rest of the world to conform to their preferred schedule?

(Source: beckyrussoniello)




If you want to build a ship, don’t drum up the men to gather wood, divide the work and give orders. Instead, teach them to yearn for the vast and endless sea.

Antoine de Saint-Exupéry



(The attribution is somewhat dubious, but who cares?  This is the best management advice ever)

(Source: en.wikiquote.org)




This is a good book about productivity, a decent book about management.
To summarize:
Putting in hours is not the same as working.
Create.
Decide what’s worth doing, and do that.
Decide what’s not worth doing, and don’t do that.
Spend your work time producing or thinking about what’s important.
Minimize distractions.
More features ≠ better.
More years of experience ≠ better. Someone with 1-2 years of experience knows all they need to about your industry.
Hire good people and then trust their judgment. Don’t bug them with meetings.
Who says meetings have to take exactly 15, 30, 45, or 60 minutes? End them early.
Be courageous.
Be sincere.
Send people home at 5.
Honestly, I thought the 37 Signals guys were pricks before I read this. But they don’t mince words and they don’t waste the reader’s time: large print, short chapters, half the pages are images rather than words. The writing is up to Strunk & White standards, which is almost never true of management books.

A lot of their advice is web-company specific. There is so much pomp, fluff, and hype in the “web startup” space that they unfortunately must spend a lot of time debunking pure crap—such crappy crap that it shouldn’t even need to be debunked, except that so many crapheads are sniffing this crap that they’ve lost touch with common sense.
These obvious debunkments cover:
“startups” and “entrepreneurs” who play instead of working
hype
people who think some “stupid” corporation with a lot of money will buy their dumb idea(because obviously those people got tens of millions to play with by being stupid, right?)
people who think they just need to raise more money and then their business will work — no, it’s failing because your product sucks

The book is cheap ($10) and a quick read.

This is a good book about productivity, a decent book about management.

To summarize:

  • Putting in hours is not the same as working.
  • Create.
  • Decide what’s worth doing, and do that.
  • Decide what’s not worth doing, and don’t do that.
  • Spend your work time producing or thinking about what’s important.
  • Minimize distractions.
  • More features ≠ better.
  • More years of experience ≠ better. Someone with 1-2 years of experience knows all they need to about your industry.
  • Hire good people and then trust their judgment. Don’t bug them with meetings.
  • Who says meetings have to take exactly 15, 30, 45, or 60 minutes? End them early.
  • Be courageous.
  • Be sincere.
  • Send people home at 5.

Honestly, I thought the 37 Signals guys were pricks before I read this. But they don’t mince words and they don’t waste the reader’s time: large print, short chapters, half the pages are images rather than words. The writing is up to Strunk & White standards, which is almost never true of management books.

A lot of their advice is web-company specific. There is so much pomp, fluff, and hype in the “web startup” space that they unfortunately must spend a lot of time debunking pure crap—such crappy crap that it shouldn’t even need to be debunked, except that so many crapheads are sniffing this crap that they’ve lost touch with common sense.

These obvious debunkments cover:

  • “startups” and “entrepreneurs” who play instead of working
  • hype
  • people who think some “stupid” corporation with a lot of money will buy their dumb idea
    (because obviously those people got tens of millions to play with by being stupid, right?)
  • people who think they just need to raise more money and then their business will work — no, it’s failing because your product sucks

The book is cheap ($10) and a quick read.

(Source: )


hi-res




What car websites should be like:

Car websites should be communities where people can openly talk about their model, give feedback to engineers (and designers for that matter). Car websites should tell the story how the car was built and who built it and why the steering wheel looks like it is and what the main engineering problems were, and tell how the designer came up with the main idea and let people react to it. Openly.




You have a website idea, you want to develop it further, you’ve even found somebody with money who thinks you and your team are great, and wants to invest.

Now you have to figure out what the terms of the deal are going to be. Oh, gawd. How many weeks are you going to spend getting familiar with the law? Or are you going to hire an expensive attorney and trust his/her word? Not only that — how do you even begin to think through a valuation of something that doesn’t even exist yet?

All of that sounds terrible, of course, and a waste of everyone’s time. It is. And most deals are similar enough that, if you had a friend who had done a deal before, you’d probably copy-and-paste his contract and then modify it somewhat for your situation, if only just to own the experience a bit.

How propitious of YCombinator to share their experience with everyone in the form of directly usable documents. Efficiency up, lawyers down. Awesome.

(Source: )




Technically the best business idea ever is the gift card. You take advantage of (or should I say, “leverage”) social stigma to get people to give you money. You don’t even have to deliver any products, you just get money. Maybe you will have to give up some inventory later; maybe the gift card just gets lost. Often you make even more money, if you price your cards at $20 and your merchandise at $22.99. (“You” here must generally be an incumbent brand.)

But, like, where’s the beef? That invention’s not really making the world a better or more interesting place — it’s just tweaking the vector field so that money flows toward you.

It might even make the world a worse place: think of those soul-less malls, filled with incumbent retail outlets offering pappy crap — but you’ve gotta get something and you don’t really know the receiver that well, and it’s going to be awkward if you have nothing…. Geez. Just make presents for the people you love and get everybody else chocolate or champagne.

NYT or Geico?

I have a question for every aspiring capitalist. Would you rather own a share of GEICO or the New York Times? I would rather own the Times. It doesn’t make money but it makes a difference.

I’m not saying that to put up the literary word. I would also love a share of Kentucky Fried Chicken. That sh*t is delicious. My point is that if I had tons of money, I would want to invest it in a business with a cool product. In fact, that would be probably the most fulfilling way to spend tens of millions of dollars. (Maybe this is the reason people invest in web start-ups.)

By contrast, insurance companies are practically demonic. They fight their customers. They’re propped up by statute (yes, who would buy insurance if it wasn’t required by law?). Then they try to get out of . And they suck the life out of their salespeople and claims adjusters — contrast that to journalists, who go into journalism on purpose.

Yeah, a well-run insurance company ought to make money, and serve an economic purpose to boot. A greedily run company ought to make money faster than they stuff it into their pockets. But — do you really want all that tar on your soul?




Why is Pixar consistently successful?

  1. They review work every single day, forcing everybody to be embarrassed equally and get around the natural feeling of “I’m done with this now” when someone presents.
  2. They create an environment where team members can be brutally honest with each other, without fear of hurting anyone’s feelings.




Consistency, tenacity, and organisational skills are more important than brilliance, intelligence, or raw energy. Certainly true in my business experience.

Written by a successful grocery manager almost a century ago.