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Posts tagged with advertising

Advertising rises and falls with the economy, though how much is a matter of debate. Randall Rothenberg … points to the remarkable stability of advertising at about 2% of GDP since 1919, when the data began to be collected.

(Source: economist.com)




Albert Wenger, one of the owners of tumblr

At minute 31:

  • Google did not invent keyword advertising
  • GoTo, later renamed Overture, out of IdeaLab, invented it
  • and were acquired by Yahoo
  • Google improved upon the keyword search idea, turning keyword search into a viable business model
  • They realised there needs to be such a thing as a quality score—i.e., you don’t myopically give the ad space to the highest bidder. Long-term revenue maximisation required asking what the users want, and not p***ing them off.




Maybe she’s born with it. Maybe it’s Maybelline. Maybe the second line has to be sung in such a sweet voice because the underlying consumerist message is so ugly. The first line is whispered, like gossip, something women are known to do all the time; it’s actually genetically selected for by evolution. Maybe she’s born with that butt. Maybe it’s plastic surgery.




My father used to tell me that when people complimented him on his tie, it was never because of the tie—it was because of the suit. If he wore his expensive suit, people would say “Nice tie!” But they were just mis-identifying what it was that they thought was nice. Similarly if you’re interviewing candidates and accidentally doing your part to perpetuate the beauty premium to salaries, you aren’t going to think “She was really beautiful, therefore she must be more competent”. You might just notate that she was a more effective communicator, got her point across better, seemed like more of a team player, something like that.

 

Achen (2002) proposes that regression in the social sciences should stick to at most three independent variables. Schrodt (2009) uses the phrase “nibbled to death by dummies”.

I understand the gripes. These two men are talking about political analysis, where the “macro” variables are shaky to begin with. What does it mean that the Heritage Foundation rated two countries 7 versus 9 points apart on corruption or freedom? Acts of corruption are individual and localised to a geography. Even “ethnofract”, which seems like a valid integral, still maps ∼10⁷ individual variation down to 10⁰. But this is statistics with fraught macro measures trying to answer questions that are hard to quantify in the first place—like the Kantian peace or center–periphery theories of global political structure.

What about regressions on complexes in more modest settings with more definitive data measurements? Let’s say my client is a grocery store. I want to answer for them how changing the first thing you see in the store will affect the amount purchased of the other items. (In general trying to answer how store layout affects purchases of all items … this being a “first bite”.) Imagine for my benefit also that I’m assisted or directed by someone with domain knowledge: someone who understands the mechanisms that make X cause Y—whether it’s walking, smelling, typical thought patterns or reaction paths, typical goals when entering the store, whatever it is.

I swear by my very strong personal intuition that complexes are everywhere. By complexes I mean highly interdependent cause & effect entanglements. Intrafamily violence, development of sexual preference, popularity of a given song, career choice, are explained not by one variable but by a network of causes.  You can’t just possess an engineering degree to make a lot of money in oil & gas. You also need to move to certain locations, give your best effort, network, not make obvious faux pax on your CV, not seduce your boss’ son, and on and on. In a broad macro picture we pick up that wealth goes up with higher degrees in the USA. Going from G.E.D. to Bachelor is associated with tripling ± 1 wealth.

I think this statistical path is worth exploring for application in any retail store. Or e-store or vending machine (both of which have a 2-D arrangement). Here as the prep are some photos of 3-D stores:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_JaHRPL7dPnc/TUG8AVboDBI/AAAAAAAADBQ/OzAbFcF3xoc/s400/anthropologie-seattle.jpg

http://mariamccabe.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/anthropologie_modernenglish.jpg

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_v-sbLptZkQw/TJN0vePbm9I/AAAAAAAAJzo/ktiWwLCty0E/s640/anthropologie1.JPG
http://dineroclub.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/ANTHROPOLOGYSTORE.jpg

http://www.fabulouslybroke.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/anthropologie-store-chicago.jpg


https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Zc1Dg5bkpuM/TXgQLKz-O-I/AAAAAAAAVWE/7mv74AXQ5N8/s1600/Decorator+Shop+1.jpg



http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcReKL_BAz1i34ZrJbrkKDwlCmZHmcs8Ux4PE_BuOD0Ru-pScnyH
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_JaHRPL7dPnc/TUG8AVboDBI/AAAAAAAADBQ/OzAbFcF3xoc/s400/anthropologie-seattle.jpg
http://solaennuevayork.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/crit-span.jpg

And for the 2-D case (vending machine or e-store) here are some screen shots from Modcloth, marked up with potential “interaction arrows” that I speculated.

image

image

image

Again, I don’t have a great understanding of how item placement or characteristics really work so I am just making up some possible connections with these arrows here. Think of them as question marks.

  • purse, shoes, dress. Do you lead the (potential) customer up the path to a particular combination that looks so perfect? (As in a fashion ad—showing several pieces in combination, in context, rather than a “wide array” of the shirts she could be wearing in this scene.)
    Chanel
  • colours. Is it better to put matching colours next to each other? Or does that push customers in one direction when we’d prefer them to spread out over the products?
    image
    http://acauseofdazzling.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/anthropologie_3.jpg
    http://i0.wp.com/www.emanuela.nl/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/anthropologie-nyc2.jpg
  • variety versus contrastability. Is it better to show “We have a marmalade orange and a Kelly green and a sky blue party dress—so much variety!” or to put three versions of the “little black dress” so the consumer can tightly specify her preferences on it?
    Prada
    Shop Window Design

    http://stylematters.us/wp/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/img_photo1.jpg
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_5UxblBQYTxk/TJH636wOZLI/AAAAAAAABy4/mGh7JeLcbhU/s1600/IMG_8769.JPG
    http://cathylwood.files.wordpress.com/2008/11/huntsville-102908-015.jpg
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_V_qSgJvLF30/TKOtmxTUCwI/AAAAAAAACbU/tp1o5hotrrA/s1600/IMG_5771.JPG
    http://www.fashion.hr/img/repository/2011/07/web_image/cn_image_size_sicgit_nyc_anthropologie.jpg

    And if you are going to put a purse or shoes along with it (now in 3-ary relations) again the same question arises. Is it better to put gold shoes and black shoes next to the “cocktail dress” to show its versatility? Or to keep it simple—just a standard shoe so you can think “Yes” or “No” and insert your own creativity independently, for example “In contrast to the black shoes they are showing me, I can visualise how my gold sparkly shoes would look in their place”? More and more issues of independence, contrast, context, and interdependence the more I think about the design challenge here.
    http://static.dezeen.com/uploads/2008/08/ferrer-store-by-arne-quinze-mg_4500.jpg

    http://static.dezeen.com/uploads/2008/08/ferrer-store-by-arne-quinze-mg_4463.jpg

  • "random" or "space" or "comparison". You put the flowers next to the shelves to make the shelves look less industrial, more rather part of a “beautiful home”. Strew “interesting books” that display some kind of character and give the shopper the good feelings of intellect or sophistication or depth.
    http://www.interiordesign.net/articles/blog/1850000585/20090304/Tjep.jpg
    http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/PJ-AT567_MENSTO_F_20100210145945.jpg
    http://i2.wp.com/www.emanuela.nl/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/anthropologie-bread-display1.jpg
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_PZT6FOMv4A/TrxEl_pzyTI/AAAAAAAAAhE/DKJLdkU4j0o/s640/Plastic+Cups.jpg
    http://www.in-formdesign.com/Project/6/1.jpg
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-gyQXBb4TnW8/TkTDT7NquoI/AAAAAAAABZM/IjyVwRNpbt8/s1600/anthropologie.jpg
    http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/01679/westfield_1679898c.jpg
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_uUplWiZ3Zjs/TBfpgLL1TFI/AAAAAAAAAyA/VAypsvgyrQQ/s1600/Modern-V2K-Nisantasi-Fashion-Store-interior-by-Autoban.jpg
    http://farm1.static.flickr.com/58/196986909_74f16e1fc8.jpg?v=1153821700
    http://www.refinery29.com/static/bin/entry/162/x/2761/roslyn-editorial-january-1.jpg
    http://takenfrom.com/Blank_Site/archive/Chlorine/High%20End%20Fashion%20Store%20Interior%20Design%20by%20Autoban.jpg
    ferrerstorebyarnequinzevk3.jpg
    Or, what if you just leave a blank space in the e-store array? Does it waste more time by making the shopper scroll down more? or does it create “breathing room” the way an expensive clothing store stocks few items?
  • price comparisons. You stock the really really expensive pantsuit next to the expensive pantsuit not to sell the really-really-expensive one, but to justify the price or lend even more glamour to the expensive one.
    image
    image

  • more obvious, direct complements like put carrots and pitas next to hummous so both the hummous looks better and you will enjoy it more. Nothing sneaky in that case.

Did you ever have the experience that you buy something in the store and it read so differently in the store and when you were caught up in the magic of the lifestyle they were trying to present to you, but now it’s hanging up with your stuff it reads so different and doesn’t actually say what you thought it said at the time?

http://www.keeyool.com/020407_anthro_01.jpg
http://newcambridgeobserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Anthropol-12.jpg

For me if I’m clothes shopping I’m thinking back on what else I own, what outfits I could make with this, how this is going to look on me, how its message fits in with my own personal style. And at the same time, the store is fighting me to define the context.

 

In the Modcloth example I’m talking mostly about 2- or 3-way interactions between objects. In analogy to simplicial complexes these would be the 1-faces or 2-faces of a skeleton.

But in general in a branded store, the overall effect is closer to let’s say the N-cells or N−1-cells. Maybe it’s not as precise as the painting in http://isomorphismes.tumblr.com/post/16039994007/thoroughly-enmeshed-composition-perturbation or a perfectly crafted poem or TV advertisement, where one change would spoil the perfection.

http://www.kineda.com/photos/travel/hlam2.jpg

But clothing stores are definitely holistic to a degree. By which I mean that the whole is more than the sum of the parts. It’s about how everything works together rather than any one thing. And a good brand develops its own je ne sais quoi which, more than the elements individually, evokes some ideal lifestyle.

image
http://kickshawproductions.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/09.10.22-The-Room.jpg

http://www.pitaya.com/slides/2013/slide2.jpg
Cafe Interior Design Best Interior Design Tips For Cafe Pictures
Cafe Shop Design Cafedesigns

Dior Balloon Ad
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HmIMSXLgNlI/TlKZkG9_r0I/AAAAAAAAEEc/A4wVR3KnbcY/s1600/Jo2_blog_V_22oct09_mag.jpg

http://mylifestream.net/photostream/uploaded_images/Anthropologie-store-in-Rockefeller-Center-2_12-27-2005_1-13-56_PM-792272.JPG

More on this topic after I finish my reading on Markov basis.




Girl in an expensive American city tells me to travel often and quit my job.
http://www.secretstopeace.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/This-is-your-life-poster.jpg




Chuck Palahniuk holds a gun to a man’s head and makes him promise to follow his dreams.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_v8hYRweI4vY/TGCiIB6PFEI/AAAAAAAAAT0/pQ-yQlORYbU/s1600/humansacrifice.jpg




Paul Ryan Spending Final Day Of Campaign Reminding Homeless People They Did This To Themselves

(As I tried to submit this to @pastabagel, I saw an ad by an institute of higher learning suggesting that I further my career by giving them money. A nice coincidence made possible by the fact that ads for higher degrees are more ubiquitous than weight-loss ads.)

(Beware: some of the images beyond “Read More” are violent.)

Read More




The Nielsen PRIZM groups people into 66 “demographic and geographic market segments” for the purpose of advertising to them.

Each of the segments has a nice description to go along with it. It’s the kind of story you want to hear as a marketer: it uses relatively in-depth knowledge of Americans, plus stereotypes or shallow summaries, to draw a character with enough roundness that you could pitch to him/her. That is, you could write copy or film a creative spot that you believe could speak to members of this cohesive segment.

As I read more deeply into the Nielsen-Claritas PRIZM, however, the 66 segments started to sound like perhaps they were generated by a simple formula. From their slideshow I learned that they divide the US population by:

  • affluence
  • population density
  • kids/no kids + age

Rather than use continuous on the implied cube (3 dimensions above), they lump various ranges together. They also lump the interaction terms unevenly—for example, (suburban & income) is lumped more finely and (urban & income) is lumped more coarsely. Specifically,

  • 4 totally -ordered levels of urbanity (measured by population density per zip code) urban  suburban  second city  town & rural
  • 14 levels of Affluence Groups (so they consider finer gradations of wealth & income within suburban and low-density zip codes and coarser income gradations in cities and second-cities)
     
  • Three life-stage categories, accommodating both those who do and don’t raise children at some point. {youngish && no kids, kids, oldish && no kids at home}.

    Younger folks (this is under-35’s or under-45 DINKs) are less graduated by affluence than families or older folks (over-55’s or over-45 DINKs).

    By the way, over-65’s are outside PRIZM’s marketing groups. I guess it’s assumed that they won’t buy big-ticket items or change their ways much unless the Monday lima-bean special becomes 25cents cheaper at Lida’s Diner than Bill’s Diner. Then you’ll see the entire community switch to Lida’s.

Like the MBTI, it assumes that: People fit in rectangles.

Unlike the MBTI, rather than using four sliding scales [0,1]⁴, the PRIZM uses discrete, totally ordered sets—something you could build with the letters and combn functions in R.

I started to wonder: is it really true that members of segment 26 are “urbane” and “love the nightlife” — even the empty-nesters and older homeowners of the segment? Is there really a “laid-back atmosphere” to segment 25? Or are these merely colourful papier-mâché rudely draped over a box?

Mostly, of course, I’m concerned with segment 31, the well-known Urban Achievers:

And proud we are of all of them.

HOW I SEE IT

When I look at a painting, I’m tempted to glance quickly and pass on. In order to appreciate a piece, I imagine the strokes and colour choices that make up the painting. I imagine myself painting the same thing. What would it have felt like to be inside Cy Twombly's hand while he painted Apollo 17? That gives me a better feeling of the art.

When I look at the Nielsen Prizm the same way — try to get inside the heads of its creators — I sense that they adopted the [0,1]⁸ rectangular structure simply because they’re not aware of alternatives. MBA’s do plenty of mathematics, but I’ve never seen any business mathematics cross over into CW-complexes, 3-tori, arborescences, or Lobachefskyan geometries. It could be that the people who designed the Prizm simply didn’t have anyone on their team who had heard of this stuff. All the quants were working on Wall Street rather than Madison Avenue. (Wacker Drive rather than Michigan Ave.)

The ribbon-farm guy (Venkatesh Rao) is a rocket scientist who crossed over into marketing, but so far I haven’t read enough of his stuff to say if he dove into algebraic geometry—it seems he did more functional analysis, optimisation / control theory, and differential geometry. Which is what I would expect rocket science consists of.

I will admit that the PRIZM’s use of two “matrix” presentations with colour-coding, pictures, defined ranges, and toss-away combinations is quite clear. Probably works better than when I tell clients “Just picture a 5-dimensional manifold, I won’t say the norm because I think it’s spaced differently in the center than the edges—and let’s not get into the interaction terms yet”. But—the bones of their model are really just [0,1]³. They’ve dressed it up and they’ve done more than that (segmenting and dropping). But a cube is the underlying architecture.

Is the Prizm simple or oversimplified? I feel it’s the latter. Not that I object to mathematical models of behaviour, emotions, or any human thing—but the hypercube metaphor just doesn’t fit my presumption of the shape of the space.

  • Does consumer space have 8 corners to it?
  • What’s the best interpretation of “distance” in the consumer space?
  • Do all of the lines really cross at right angles, in a hyper-grid? Was that supposed to be implied?

WHEREUNTO

I don’t want to carp about somebody else’s work without at least offering constructive criticism. What are some potentially better ways to think about the space of all consumers—potential buyers of houses, cars, vacations, DVD’s, washers, ‘n’all that?

Mathworld’s picture of a few topological objects gives one starting point:

One thing I noticed pretty quickly: you remember playing Star Fox battle mode? Or any video game where there is a lower-right thumbnail of you on a limited square map—such that when you go leftwards off the map you appear on the right, and when you go upwards off the map you appear on the bottom? As a kid I thought I was flying on the surface of a planet, but in fact it was the surface of a torus. (Why? If you go up to the top of the North Pole you don’t come out again at the South Pole. See the picture of the sphere with B ≠ C, i.e. N ≠ S.)

In other words, a torus (donut) is the product of a_loop × a_loop. Whereas a sphere (ball) is the product of a_loop (east/west) × a_line_segment (north/south).

GEOMETRY

Following from this short lesson in topology, one alternative to multiplying only “linear” dimensions of characteristic attributes would be to multiply lines with loops. For example a_loop × a_loop × a_line_segment. I’m not sure what the name for that shape is, but you can imagine it — like a cylindrical torus. And it’s logically possible that there are two circle-like dimensions in marketing. Something like, as politics goes further and further left, it starts to resemble the far right more than the middle. But relevant to marketing.

A second alternative then might be to consider, like in the image above, the endpoints of some line segments from the 3 dimensions of Nielsen. What if some of them were identified rather than left distinct? What kind of shapes could you create with that and would that resemble the consumer space more than a rectangle?

Some other ideas of things to question:

  • How do angles meet up? (inner product)
  • How do distances work? (norms)
  • Look through an algebraic geometry book, or Solid Shape. Are there any shapes—umbilics, furrows, biflecnodes, dimples, trumpets—that have an analogue in the space of all consumers?
  • Is backwards just the opposite of forwards? Or does that wrongly assume commutativity?

I don’t know if that would result in a better model. I don’t know if thinking about things this way would reduce wasteful ad spending. I don’t have data to test these ideas on. I just wanted to share this thought.




Nice internet things don’t come for free.

What’s said here of cable television is true as well of newspapers and any website that doesn’t charge you through a paywall. If you’re not paying, someone else is. They’re paying for your headspace, which they want because they’re going to convince you to give your IOU’s to them.

via static-void

(Source: some-velvet-morning)










handbill advertising coffee circa 1650

produced by the first coffee shop in London, in St. Michael’s Alley, Cornhill

via boing-boing, via Brad DeLong

hi-res




How much money can you make from advertising online?
Maybe $10 per thousand clicks.
On statistical chart-making: All of the interesting information is contained on the left-hand scale numberings. But that information is de-emphasised in the presentation.

How much money can you make from advertising online?

Maybe $10 per thousand clicks.

On statistical chart-making: All of the interesting information is contained on the left-hand scale numberings. But that information is de-emphasised in the presentation.


hi-res




I had nothing but ideas.

O.K., they weren’t strictly mine, in the sense that these ideas were acquired, arranged, styled, photographed, published and distributed by entities bearing no relation to me whatsoever.